Analysis of Domestic Coal Price Trends

Recently, due to the rise in temperature, there has been a decrease in civilian electricity. Although some factories in the south have officially started construction, the recovery in electricity consumption is limited, and the daily consumption of power plants has decreased. The inventory is sufficient, and the purchasing enthusiasm of coal consuming enterprises is not high.

[Coal Production Area] Shanxi's coal prices continue to remain stable, with little increase in price. According to relevant sources, individual coal stations in Shanxi have not fully resumed work and production, and most coal mines are still in a state of shutdown. The balance between production and demand is the main reason for the stable coal prices in Shanxi region According to the latest price released by Qinhuangdao Coal Network Price Channel, the prices of 6000, 5800, and 5500 kcal thermal power coal in Datong City, Shanxi Province are 695 yuan/ton, 665 yuan/ton, and 645 yuan/ton, respectively; The calorific value of 5000 kcal in Taiyuan area is 575 yuan/ton; The prices of 5200 and 4800 kcal thermal coal in Shuozhou area are 570 yuan/ton and 465 yuan/ton, respectively; The calorific value of 5000 calories in Xinzhou area is 545 yuan /Tons, compared to the previous week, the price remains unchanged

[Coal Transportation] The amount of coal imported by the Daqin Railway has increased, and coal transportation is normal. This week, the three major coal ports in the Bohai Rim region (Qinhuangdao Port, Guotou Jingtang Port, and Guotou Caofeidian Port) saw a total of approximately 6.76 million tons of railway imports, an increase compared to the previous week. Among them, the import volume of China National Investment Corporation's Caofeidian Port Railway was 1.05 million tons, and the import volume of China National Investment Corporation's Jingtang Port Railway was about 900000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons compared to the previous week. This week, the Qinhuangdao Port coal railway unloaded an average of 8582 vehicles per day, with a daily coal import volume of approximately 687700 tons, an increase

[Port Coal Transfer] This week, the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal remained stable. According to the latest price released by Qinhuangdao Coal Network, the price of 5800 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao this week is 820-830 yuan/ The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal is 765-775 yuan/ton, the price of 5000 kcal thermal coal is 670-680 yuan/ton, and the price of 4500 kcal thermal coal is 580-590 yuan/ton, all prices remain unchanged from the previous week This week, the total coal throughput of the three major Bohai Rim coal ports was not significantly affected by the heavy fog weather and sea closures. As of March 6th, the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port is 8.39 million tons, and the coal inventory has sharply increased. The coal throughput is 4.51 million tons. The daily coal import volume of Guotou Jingtang Port remains around 128000 tons, with a completed coal throughput of 871000 tons and an average daily shipment of 124400 tons. There are around 2 million tons of coal in the coal yard; Guotou Caofeidian Port imported a total of 1.05 million tons of coal, with a total coal throughput of 1.002 million tons. The inflow and outflow were basically the same, and the on-site inventory remained around 2.45 million tons, with an increase in on-site inventory; Tianjin Port Coal Yard has approximately 1.91 million tons, an increase of approximately 1.8% compared to the previous week This week, Qinhuangdao Port was affected by heavy fog and an increase in domestic refined oil prices, leading to a continued increase in coal shipping costs. According to the price channel data of Qinhuangdao Coal Network, taking the 20000 to 30000 ton ship types provided by Qinhuangdao Tongying Shipping Co., Ltd. as an example, the coal sea freight from Qinhuangdao Port to Shanghai, Zhangjiagang, and Guangzhou is 50 yuan/ton, 54 yuan/ton, and 80 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively compared to last week's freight prices Related shipping companies have stated that in recent times, the port has been affected by heavy fog and sea closures, resulting in significant loss of ship capacity. As a result, the price of refined oil has continued to rise, transportation costs have increased, leading to a three week increase in coal shipping costs Due to the significantly higher temperatures in most regions of China compared to the same period last year, the electricity load for heating has significantly decreased. In addition, many factories have not yet officially started production after the holiday, and although industrial electricity consumption has rebounded, the increase is still not significant. According to data from the Coal Finance Channel of Ocean Shipping Coal Network, from February 26th to March 4th, the daily coal consumption of power plants in key power generation groups showed an upward trend compared to the previous week. The number of days of coal storage in the power plant remains at a reasonable level Experts believe that as the weather warms up and hydropower output recovers, the off-season characteristics of coal consumption and supply and demand are becoming the most important factors affecting the recent supply and demand relationship and price trend of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region. However, the current high coal inventory situation of power companies and various transit ports in the Bohai Rim further suppresses the enthusiasm for supply and demand of thermal coal in the market, thereby promoting the continued flat trading of the thermal coal market in the region The overall trading price tends downwards. However, after three consecutive months of decline in market thermal coal prices, factors such as coal production and marketing costs, as well as the international market thermal coal prices that are still operating at high levels, are gradually strengthening their support for the market thermal coal prices in the Bohai Rim region. This is also the main reason for the stabilization of the market thermal coal prices in the Bohai Rim region this cycle